Scenario Assignments

  • Where will the development of the last 15 years lead the world if the trends continue until the year 2100, and what does this mean for the climate?
  • What key threats and opportunities affect humanity's chances of meeting the Paris target?
  • Describe some scenarios based on these threats and opportunities
  • Make an estimate of the key figures used in the Climate Scenario Model - for each of your scenarios
  • Insert the key figures into the Climate Scenario Model and calculate the temperature changes
  • If none of your scenarios meet the Paris target, you must make the most realistic projection that meets the targe
  • Document the process


  • For the first task, you can use "The Very Simple Climate Model"
  • You must spend time on the phase where you discuss threats and opportunities. Here you must be open-minded to each other's input. You do not have to agree on the scenarios, but there must be at least one person in the group who believes in the scenario
  • Play with the Climate Scenario Model and find out which key figures matter and how important the speed of the transition is
  • The quantification process is difficult. Don't spend too much time on it. Make your own assumptions and don't spend so much time on the forecasts made by others
  • Take time to document the result


  • If your teacher has formulated the assignment, it is of course the person who must review and comment on the assignment
  • In any case, please send the results of your project to Then I will review the assignment and comment on it. I will then decide whether to include it in the collection of examples displayed on the platform